Managing hydrological risks in hydro-based portfolios

Author

Barroso, L.A. ; Granville, S. ; Trinkenreich, J. ; Pereira, M.V. ; Lino, P.

Author_Institution

Mercados de Energia, Power Syst. Res., Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Volume

2

fYear

2003

fDate

13-17 July 2003

Abstract

The objective of this work is to analyze the hydrological risk faced by hydro plants (or hydro based portfolios) in hydropower based markets and possible mitigation measures. This risk, which arises in low inflow seasons, can lead to high financial exposures of these agents in the spot market. The analysis will be carried out with the aid of optimization models. In particular the insertion of a thermal plant into the hydro portfolio will be analyzed. This asset can work as an insurance (or back-up) to the portfolio and provide significant risk reductions with the synergy among the energy sources in the new mix. Case studies will be presented with the Brazilian system, which is hydro based.

Keywords

energy resources; hydroelectric power stations; optimisation; power markets; risk analysis; thermal power stations; energy sources; hydro-based portfolios; hydroelectric power generation; hydrological risks analysis; hydropower markets; mitigation measures; optimization models; spot market; thermal plant; Contracts; Hydroelectric power generation; Hydrologic measurements; Portfolios; Power generation; Power systems; Production systems; Risk analysis; Risk management; Wind energy generation;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2003, IEEE

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7989-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PES.2003.1270395

Filename

1270395