MARKAL analysis of PV capacity and CO/sub 2/ emissions´ reduction in the US

This analysis compares market penetration of grid-connected PV in the U.S. in the context of a fully competitive market. The MARKAL-MACRO integrated energy-environmental-economic model was used to simulate the US energy capacity for the next 30 years. Photovoltaic technologies were assumed to compete on cost alone with 52 other energy generation technologies in the US, in a deregulated environment. It was shown that PV can become cost-effective in both distributed and central power applications in the US, if current expectations of performance and cost reductions materialize. The predictions of this analysis compare well with the goals of the US photovoltaic industry roadmap.