EMSIT-LD: estimating method of short-interval-traffic distribution considering long-term-traffic dynamics

Realizing short-interval-traffic behaviors is important for network performance management. However, it is difficult to measure short-interval-traffic volumes because there are complications in collecting short-interval-traffic data from routers, for example, a heavy load on routers or inaccurate measurement by the short-polling interval. It even demands expensive measurement tools. To resolve these disadvantages, an estimating method of short-interval-traffic distribution (EMSIT) has been proposed. This method estimates short-interval-traffic distributions using MIB (management information base) data, which collects traffic volumes in cycles of several minutes. We propose a new estimating method (EMSIT-LD) based on EMSIT, which applies to the case of long-term-traffic dynamics. We evaluate it by computer simulations and actual traffic data.