Title :
Option pricing and trading with artificial neural networks and advanced parametric models with implied parameters
Author :
Panayiotis, Andreou C. ; Spiros, Martzoukos H. ; Chris, Charalambous
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Public & Bus. Adm., Cyprus Univ., Lefkosia, Cyprus
Abstract :
We combine parametric models and feedforward artificial neural networks to price and trade European S&P500 Index options. Artificial neural networks are optimized on a hybrid target function consisted by the standardized residual term between the actual market price and the option estimate of a certain parametric model. Parametric models include: (i) the Black and Scholes model that assumes a geometric Brownian motion process (GBM); (ii) the Corrado and Su that additionally allows for excess skewness and kurtosis via a Gram-Charlier series expansion; (iii) analytic models that extend the GBM by incorporating multiple sources of Poisson distributed jumps; and (vi) stochastic volatility and jump models. Daily average implied parameters of these models are estimated with options transaction data via an unconstraint process optimized by the non-linear least squares Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. This structural average implied parameters are used to validate the out-of sample pricing and trading (with transaction costs) ability of all models developed.
Keywords :
Brownian motion; Poisson distribution; artificial intelligence; feedforward neural nets; least squares approximations; pricing; Poisson distributed jump; feedforward artificial neural network; geometric Brownian motion process; market price; nonlinear least squares algorithm; parametric model; pricing; trading; Artificial neural networks; Costs; Electronic mail; Forward contracts; Information analysis; Least squares approximation; Parametric statistics; Pricing; Solid modeling; Stochastic processes;
Conference_Titel :
Neural Networks, 2004. Proceedings. 2004 IEEE International Joint Conference on
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8359-1
DOI :
10.1109/IJCNN.2004.1381086