On the stability of the 1999 Pacific salmon treaty

Negotiations on a Canada-US Pacific salmon treaty began in 1908 but the first comprehensive treaty was not achieved until 1985. After a short period of cooperation, the treaty was undermined by arguments over catch sharing and the failure to rebuild some important salmon stocks. A revised treaty, agreed upon in 1999, established conservation of salmon as a priority and included a side-payment, in the form of two endowment funds designed in part to appease Canadian concern over catch imbalances. In this paper, the graph model for conflict resolution is used to examine the stability of the revised salmon treaty. The assessment suggests that the treaty is stable if the side-payment is maintained or enhanced, even if both countries pursue aggressive fishing strategies. If the side-payment is not maintained, then it is likely that all groups attempt to maximize their catch and Canada seeks a renegotiation of the treaty.