Title :
Tunable free parameters C and epsilon-tube in support vector regression for grey prediction model - SVRGM(1,1|C,e) approach
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Comput. Sci. & Inf. Eng., Nat. Taitung Univ., Taiwan
Abstract :
This paper introduces a novel SVRGM(1,1|C,e) prediction model for forecasting economic indexes like stock price indexes or future trading indexes. SVRGM(1,1|C,e) model employ the support vector regression (SVR) learning algorithm to improve the control and environment parameters in grey model GM(1,1) , that is, enhancing generalization capability in the non-periodic short-term prediction. Therefore, this proposed method could reduce the overshooting phenomenon, that often occurred in GM(1,1) model or autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) method, so as to achieve better the prediction accuracy.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; economic forecasting; economic indicators; forecasting theory; grey systems; support vector machines; autoregressive moving average method; epsilon tube; forecasting economic index; grey prediction model; stock price index; support vector regression learning; tunable free parameters C; Accuracy; Computer science; Difference equations; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Predictive models; Prototypes; Region 4; Turning; Vectors;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2004 IEEE International Conference on
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8566-7
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.2004.1400694