Model of transportation contribution to economic growth

The model in this paper is to describe the relationship between transportation and economic growth. Through comparison between economic index and economic exponent, the economic indexes are taken as input variables and corresponding economic exponent as output variable. Discrete dynamic time systems model is applied to depicting the relationship between regional economic exponent and transportation. After data normalization by fixed base conversion, The LKL approach is applied, to solving the model. Algorithm is devised and state space theory and Kalman filter is applied in the algorithm. The difference among trend traffic, shifted traffic and induced traffic are discussed. We believe it is appropriate to use induced traffic to measure the economic growth caused solely by the freeway. Therefore, induced turnover of freight and passenger is used in the contribution model to calculate the social-economic contribution value. Finally, the forecasting, which is performed by the model, on contribution value of freeway to regional economic growth, is demonstrated by actual example analysis.