Physical Security and Vulnerability Modeling for Infrastructure Facilities

A model of malicious intrusions in infrastructure facilities is developed, using a network representation of the system structure together with Markov models of intruder progress and strategy. This structure provides an explicit mechanism to estimate the probability of successful breaches of physical security, and to evaluate potential improvements. An example of an intruder attempting to place an explosive device on an airplane at an airport gate illustrates the structure and potential application of the model.