Title :
Direct Interval Forecasting of Wind Power
Author :
Can Wan ; Zhao Xu ; Pinson, Pierre
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Hong Kong Polytech. Univ., Hong Kong, China
Abstract :
This letter proposes a novel approach to directly formulate the prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machine and particle swarm optimization, where prediction intervals are generated through direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness, without the prior knowledge of forecasting errors. The proposed approach has been proved to be highly efficient and reliable through preliminary case studies using real-world wind farm data, indicating a high potential of practical application.
Keywords :
learning (artificial intelligence); load forecasting; particle swarm optimisation; power generation reliability; probability; wind power plants; direct interval forecasting; extreme learning machine; particle swarm optimization; power generation reliability; probability; real-world wind farm data; wind power forecasting; wind power generation; Extreme learning machine; forecasting; particle swarm optimization; prediction interval; wind power;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2258824