Sensitivity analysis on long-term power demand by Grey System

In the electricity market, the sensitivity analysis on long-term power demand is not only useful for the dynamic studies on the loads, but also of significance for the market management and planning. However, traditional methods that find the coefficients by computing the derivatives of the known mathematical equation, cannot deal with such problem, being devoid of definite mathematics or simulation model of long-term power demand. So this paper focuses on the sensitivity analysis on long-term power demand, which is well applicable to the variables having definite equations or not, by Grey system that is based on the analysis in incomplete information and devoid of experience. In this work, the original influence factors are firstly extracted by Grey Relational Analysis. After that, the mapping model of yearly power demand is first built by Grey Model (1,N), concerning the mined influence factors. Then the mathematical equation of long-term power demand is derived, based on which the sensitivity coefficients are finally found by computing the corresponding partial derivatives. Case studies are used to test the model.