Gray prediction theory applications in drill stem failure

Author

Tie, Yan ; Bi, Xue-liang

Author_Institution

Daqing Pet. Inst., Pet. Eng. Inst., Daqing

Volume

1

fYear

2008

fDate

12-15 July 2008

Firstpage

523

Lastpage

527

Abstract

The gray model based on the gray theory is a model of continuous differential equation. We can make a comprehensive observation and a long-range prediction to the variety and development of the safe accident by using this model. This paper mainly introduced the basic theory of the gray prediction, firstly, a prediction model of the drill stem failure in deep well was set up with this theory, and then we used it to predict drill stem failures of deep well happened in Anda district, Zhaozhou district and Datong district in Daqing oil field in recent 10 years. The fairy well tally between the predicted results and the actual facts showed that the prediction model was accurate enough for drill engineer.

Keywords

failure (mechanical); grey systems; oil drilling; underground equipment; Anda district; Daqing oil field; Datong district; Zhaozhou district; continuous differential equation; deep well; drill stem failure; gray prediction theory; Accidents; Bismuth; Costs; Cybernetics; Differential equations; Drilling; Machine learning; Petroleum; Prediction theory; Predictive models; Drill Stem Failure; Drilling Engineering; Grey Prediction; Grey Theory;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Kunming

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-2095-7

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-2096-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICMLC.2008.4620460

Filename

4620460