Title :
Gray prediction theory applications in drill stem failure
Author :
Tie, Yan ; Bi, Xue-liang
Author_Institution :
Daqing Pet. Inst., Pet. Eng. Inst., Daqing
Abstract :
The gray model based on the gray theory is a model of continuous differential equation. We can make a comprehensive observation and a long-range prediction to the variety and development of the safe accident by using this model. This paper mainly introduced the basic theory of the gray prediction, firstly, a prediction model of the drill stem failure in deep well was set up with this theory, and then we used it to predict drill stem failures of deep well happened in Anda district, Zhaozhou district and Datong district in Daqing oil field in recent 10 years. The fairy well tally between the predicted results and the actual facts showed that the prediction model was accurate enough for drill engineer.
Keywords :
failure (mechanical); grey systems; oil drilling; underground equipment; Anda district; Daqing oil field; Datong district; Zhaozhou district; continuous differential equation; deep well; drill stem failure; gray prediction theory; Accidents; Bismuth; Costs; Cybernetics; Differential equations; Drilling; Machine learning; Petroleum; Prediction theory; Predictive models; Drill Stem Failure; Drilling Engineering; Grey Prediction; Grey Theory;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kunming
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2095-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2096-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLC.2008.4620460
