An Improved Seasonal Variation Model

Aiming at the shortage of traditional seasonal variation model, the combination of gray model with self-memory model was proposed for improving traditional seasonal variation model. The application of gray model used to dig out the long time trend and self-memory model to solve problem of non-linearity of the model´s seasonal fluctuation. The case study showed that the proposed model has higher precision than traditional seasonal variation model and it has the better adaptability, which is a better kind of seasonal variation model.