Urban Daily Water Demand Short-Term Forecasts Based on the Chaos Theory

The characteristics of the chaos theory are analyzed in this paper. The urban daily water demand short-term forecasts model, which is for the scientific forecast of the urban daily water demand, is built based on the chaos theory. The time-series of urban daily water demand is analyzed on the basis of phase space reconstruction and the historical data of water demand is used. The saturated embedding dimension, delay time and Lyapunov exponent were solved. And they are used in urban water demand forecast. The urban daily water demand was taken by the forecasting model in a large city in the northeast china. As a result, the urban daily water demand short-term forecast model, which is affected by many factors, has a high precision and a good value.