A Study on Progress Risk of IUR Commissioned R&D Project Based on GERT

Author

Juan Zhang ; Yunna Wu ; Yong Huang

Author_Institution

Sch. of Bus. Adm., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing

fYear

2008

fDate

12-14 Oct. 2008

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

To study the progress risk of IUR commissioned R&D project, this paper identifies progress risk source first, then forecasts the R&D time required in total by constructing GERT network model of R&D flow. In the quantitative analysis, the mason formula is used to compute the transfer function of the GERT, and the moment generating function is used to compute the probability distribution of the R&D time and costs. This analytical solution is used to describe the risk of the commissioned R&D project. An example is given to illuminate how to use this analytical algorithm in the end.

Keywords

PERT; research and development; risk analysis; statistical distributions; transfer functions; GERT; IUR commissioned R&D project; probability distribution; progress risk; transfer function; Collaboration; Costs; Distributed computing; Personnel; Probability distribution; Quality management; Research and development; Risk analysis; Technological innovation; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, 2008. WiCOM '08. 4th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Dalian

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-2107-7

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-2108-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/WiCom.2008.2471

Filename

4680660