Analysis on product developing risk based on BBN

With the technology development, the requirements of the human are higher and higher. The target products tend larger, complicated and high-integrated. It causes the high potential risks during the product development. It is necessary to find out the sources of the risks, assess them and take the measures to control them. The risk analysis including risk identification and assessment is a base of risk management. The risk analysis on developing large-scale complex products can be expressed with 2-dimension model, i.e. product developing process dimension and product configuration dimension. Product developing process is composed of developing activities. There is developing managing risk inside developing activities and among them. Analyzing activities and their sequences, the factors that cause managing risk are found out. From the product configuration dimension, the target product’s behaviours are anticipated. Then judge if the target product satisfies the functions and acquire product technical risks, and seek the causes, i.e. its structure. The product developing process and product configuration risk assessment model based on BBN (Bayesian Belief Networks) is built. The developing risk is calculated with this model, and then it can guide us to take corrective actions in order. With this methodology, we have analyzed the product developing risks during the development of micro-electronic equipment.