Application of modified grey modeling method to forecasting the temperature during electric field assisted sintering

The law of sintering temperature’ changing during electric field assisted sintering(EFAST) is the very important technology information. Commonly very long time test, which could damage the test instrument, must be done in order to find the law. Grey system theory is suitable for systems in which some information is clear and some is blurry, so it is feasible to predict poor messages system’s technology parameters. In this paper, the Grey system theory is adopted to forecasting the unknown sintering temperature during EFAST, but it is discovered that the predict results has some problems, for example the forecasting sintering temperature is monotonic rising during EFAST, but in fact the sintering temperature has a maximum value or peak value if the pulse current keep unchangeable during EFAST , so we modified the standard grey model by adding the temperature rising series information to the grey model. The result showed the temperature peak can be found and the forecasting precision is improved and the prediction error is decreased. The average relative error of modified grey model is less than 3%.