Using Mathematical Models to Guide the Simulation of Improvised Explosive Devices in Public Spaces

Terrorist attacks, for example in Madrid and London, have increased concern over the threat that Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) pose to public safety. Insurgent groups in Iraq and Afghanistan have developed relatively sophisticated tactics, including the use of synchronised attacks with multiple devices that have not yet been witnessed in Europe or North America. Some of these approaches specifically target the fire and rescue services. Computer simulations provide tools that can be used to plan the response to potential attacks. They can be used to work through a range of scenarios so that emergency personnel minimise their vulnerability and mitigate the threat posed to the general public. However, it can be difficult to simulate the range of human behaviours that are seen in the aftermath of terrorist attacks. Similarly, it is unclear how to develop appropriate blast and fragmentation models that capture a range of future Improvised Explosive Devices. The following pages present a brief overview of mathematical models that are being integrated into simulation tools to address these problems.