Stochastic C3 Modeling and Analysis for Maneuverable Battle Systems

We have been developing stochastic models for describing dynamic multi-force C³ systems. Incorporated in the description are the key subsystem and command decision elements governing the operation and characterization of a C³ system. Analytical methods are used to carry out performance analysis of the underlying C³ model. We compute key performance measures that involve: probability of win (probability that a mission is successful), battle duration, numbers of asset losses to win, cost functions and various state distributions. In this paper, we consider a stochastic C³ model for a system that explicitly incorporates dynamic force movements, at decision times, or upon the occurrence of force attritions. Force maneuvering policies, command rules of engagement and battle evolution can depend upon the complete (known or estimated) current state information (force-size, location, force-type, speeds, terrain-type, etc.) and various system parameters (such as those involving communications and identification capabilities, kill probability functions and capacities, movements capabilities and constraints) of the friendly and adversary forces. We present here a discrete-time dynamic semi-Markov C³ stochastic model for characterizing such a battle system, carry out its performance analysis, and illustrate its use, via a simple example. We also illustrate the sensitivity of the C³ systems performance to the performance of the underlying communications, sensing and weapon systems and maneuvering policies.