Reliability Analysis of Generating Capacity of Mexico´s National Interconnected Power System

This paper analyzes the generation adequacy of Mexico´s National Interconnected Power System (MNIPS). The algorithm used computes loss of load expectation (LOLE) and loss of energy expectation (LOEE) indexes. These indexes are calculated through an analytical (recursive) method and are then compared with values recommended by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). The period of study is 1998-2016. Historical data from 1998 to 2007 was used, and forecasted values for the remaining years. Weekly indexes were computed from 2000 to 2003 in order to analyze the load curtailments´ effectiveness that occurred in this period. Historical and forecasted generation capacity data include maintenance schedules, additions of new generating units, and permanently shut down units in accordance with the long-term expanding-system plan.