Verification of Markov Models of Ageing Power Equipment

Markov models are a well established technique widely used for modeling deterioration processes of the electric power equipment and in reliability analysis. Recently, several papers using Markov and semi-Markov models have been published addressing the issue of the calculation of the remaining life, future failure rates and the probability of failure of power equipment. This paper focuses on one such model and addresses an issue of accuracy of Markov model analysis. The paper presents a method of model adjustment and discusses implementation of three numerical algorithms solving the problem of parameter approximation. A practical example confirms validity of the approach and illustrates its efficiency.