Flight Delay Alarming Analysis for an Airport Based on Markov

Flight delay is the most prominent problem in the field of an airport to circulate to manage in recent years. In order to make a comparative accurate forecast of the flight delay situation, this paper gives an improved Markov model by adding the system with a weight adjustment. By using the optimization method, we compute state transition probability matrix, analyze the data from the capital airport, and forecast the probability of the departure flights in all the delaying time section. The probability of flight delay is divided into five levels. For each level we make a forecast with one day data chosen from the airport. The warning method for airport flight delay forecasting makes use of time fragmenting technique by an interval of 20 minutes. Simulation experiment gives out error analysis. And the comparison with delay probability getting from the practical data indicates that the forecast effect is ideal. It has good application value in the practical application.