DocumentCode
501268
Title
Notice of Retraction
Cash Flow Risk Measurement for Chinese Non-life Insurance Industry Based on Estimation of ES and NRR
Author
Teng Fan ; Zhang Qingwei
Author_Institution
Ningbo Inst. of Technol., Zhejiang Univ., Ningbo, China
Volume
2
fYear
2009
fDate
15-17 May 2009
Firstpage
628
Lastpage
631
Abstract
Notice of Retraction
After careful and considered review of the content of this paper by a duly constituted expert committee, this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE´s Publication Principles.
We hereby retract the content of this paper. Reasonable effort should be made to remove all past references to this paper.
The presenting author of this paper has the option to appeal this decision by contacting TPII@ieee.org.
It is very important to measure cash flow risks for the non-life insurance industry, especially in China. A couple of risk measures named cash flow expected shortfall (ES) and cash flow non-recovery ratio (NRR) are proposed based on several assumptions. Therefore monthly premiums and claims of Chinese insurance industry are fitted by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to generate potential cash outflow and inflow in the next 2 years according to SARIMA model. Finally, cash flow ES and cash flow NRR of the next 2 years are estimated. It is briefly concluded that cash flow ES in the future 2 years is RMB 3-8 billion yuan and cash flow NRR is 3%-13% when expense ratio is between 25% and 35%, which means cash flow of Chinese non-life insurance industry is considerably safe because of adequate buffer asset of 130.1 billion yuan at the end of 2007.
After careful and considered review of the content of this paper by a duly constituted expert committee, this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE´s Publication Principles.
We hereby retract the content of this paper. Reasonable effort should be made to remove all past references to this paper.
The presenting author of this paper has the option to appeal this decision by contacting TPII@ieee.org.
It is very important to measure cash flow risks for the non-life insurance industry, especially in China. A couple of risk measures named cash flow expected shortfall (ES) and cash flow non-recovery ratio (NRR) are proposed based on several assumptions. Therefore monthly premiums and claims of Chinese insurance industry are fitted by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to generate potential cash outflow and inflow in the next 2 years according to SARIMA model. Finally, cash flow ES and cash flow NRR of the next 2 years are estimated. It is briefly concluded that cash flow ES in the future 2 years is RMB 3-8 billion yuan and cash flow NRR is 3%-13% when expense ratio is between 25% and 35%, which means cash flow of Chinese non-life insurance industry is considerably safe because of adequate buffer asset of 130.1 billion yuan at the end of 2007.
Keywords
Monte Carlo methods; autoregressive moving average processes; financial management; risk management; Chinese nonlife insurance industry; Monte Carlo simulation method; cash flow expected shortfall; cash flow nonrecovery ratio; cash flow risk measurement; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model; Aggregates; Distribution functions; Fluid flow measurement; Information technology; Insurance; Random variables; Reactive power; Risk management; Chinese non-life insurance industry; cash flow risk measurement; expected shortfall; non-recovery ratio; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Information Technology and Applications, 2009. IFITA '09. International Forum on
Conference_Location
Chengdu
Print_ISBN
978-0-7695-3600-2
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/IFITA.2009.440
Filename
5231432
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