Methodologies for the analysis of both short-term and long-term network risk

The level of electricity distribution network risk in the UK is perceived to be increasing in the short term, and an asset management approach seeks to optimise the balance between capital expenditure and the risk to customer supplies. Further drivers that could lead to increased network risk can be anticipated in the longer term. Against this background, the paper seeks to model, analyse and quantify both short-term and long-term network risk, and has developed methodologies for doing so. These methodologies are illustrated by a case study based on the anticipated rebuilding of a key 132 kV switching station on part of the UK network.