Regional Energy Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Because of the essential role played by energy in economic development, particularly in view of the two major global energy crises and recent high oil prices, whether or not a region or the whole world can successfully satisfy its energy demand has been an issue of great importance. This study uses stochastic models to forecast regional energy demand in the situation of insufficient statistical data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model needs less data than other models and can represent economic time series well. So we use it in this study and apply it to the case of Taiwan. The study concludes that there will be an average annual growth of 3.1% for Taiwan´s total energy demand during 2008-2012, and we suggests more cross-strait energy cooperation.