Fast Method of Compound Event Probability Calculation Based on Binary Tree

Fast method of compound event probability calculation based on binary tree is presented for large-scale systems with two-state components. According to the principle of binary decision diagrams, the presented method uses binary tree as basic data structure to save compound events. Thus, it is very simple to catch the probability of compound events as the corresponding calculation is needed only once. Furthermore, it can be proved that the presented method always has a better performance than the classical inclusion-exclusion principle, because both of time and space complexity of the former are linear function of problem scale in any context. Simulations show that the presented method is valid and efficient, which is also proved by its application in IEEE RTS-24 power system.