Forecast and Evolution on Chinese ETP Diffusion through Cellular Automata and Cross-Entropy Divergence

Author

Yinglong, He ; Zongfang, Zhou

Author_Institution

Res. Center of SME, Wuhan Univ. of Sci. & Technol., Wuhan, China

Volume

3

fYear

2009

fDate

14-16 Aug. 2009

Firstpage

92

Lastpage

96

Abstract

Because of the high uncertainty of the emerging technology, success or failure of an emerging technology product marketing can not be only predicted by its sales. This paper provides a new and effective method to evaluate and forecast Chinese emerging technology products diffusion. The probability of success of each emerging technology product can be predicted through cellular automata and cross-entropy divergence in this paper.

Keywords

cellular automata; entropy; marketing; technological forecasting; Chinese ETP diffusion; cellular automata; cross entropy divergence; emerging technology product marketing; Conference management; Economic forecasting; Explosives; Helium; Marketing and sales; Marketing management; Research and development; Technological innovation; Technology forecasting; Uncertainty; cellular automata; cross-entropy divergence; emerging technology products diffusion;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Natural Computation, 2009. ICNC '09. Fifth International Conference on

Conference_Location

Tianjin

Print_ISBN

978-0-7695-3736-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICNC.2009.666

Filename

5366938