The Diffusion of ISO9000 Certification in China: A Trend Analysis Based on Grey Verhulst Model

ISO9000 certification has become a worldwide phenomenon, spreading across all countries and regions of the world. It is a management innovation in nature for the organizations to introduce and implement ISO9000 standard, and diffusion path of ISO9000 standard can be described with S type curve. In the paper, we establish a grey Verhulst model for diffusion forecasting of ISO9000 certification by using the data of Chinese ISO9000 certification during 2001-2007. The results of model accuracy checking show that the grey Verhulst model is very excellence and can serves as a tool to forecast the future diffusion trend of ISO9000 certification in China. By applying the grey Verhulst model, we find that the diffusion of Chinese ISO9000 certification will approach its absolute saturation point at year 2033 if no other measures are taken.