Decision of transmission line rating based on assessment of Thermal Overload Risk

This paper suggests the method that forecasts Dynamic Line Rating (DLR). Thermal Overload Risk (TOR) of the next time is forecasted based on the present weather condition and DLR value by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). To model weather elements of transmission line for MCS, this paper will propose the use of statistical weather models that time series law is applied. Also, through the case study, it is confirmed that the forecasted TOR probability can be utilized as criterion that decides DLR of next time. In short, proposed method may be used usefully to keep security and reliability of transmission line by forecasting transmission capacity of the next time.