DocumentCode
52016
Title
How Many Occurrences of Rare Blackout Events Are Needed to Estimate Event Probability?
Author
Dobson, I. ; Carreras, B.A. ; Newman, D.E.
Author_Institution
Electr. & Comput. Eng. Dept., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA, USA
Volume
28
Issue
3
fYear
2013
fDate
Aug. 2013
Firstpage
3509
Lastpage
3510
Abstract
We give simple conditions on the number of occurrences needed for statistically valid conclusions about simulated or observed rare events associated with blackouts. For example, 11 occurrences are needed to estimate the probability of a rare event within a factor of 2 with 95% confidence.
Keywords
power system reliability; statistical analysis; power system reliability; probability estimation; rare blackout event; statistical analysis; Power system reliability; Power system simulation; Probability; Statistics; Power system reliability; simulation; statistics;
fLanguage
English
Journal_Title
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher
ieee
ISSN
0885-8950
Type
jour
DOI
10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2242700
Filename
6459558
Link To Document