Title :
How Many Occurrences of Rare Blackout Events Are Needed to Estimate Event Probability?
Author :
Dobson, I. ; Carreras, B.A. ; Newman, D.E.
Author_Institution :
Electr. & Comput. Eng. Dept., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA, USA
Abstract :
We give simple conditions on the number of occurrences needed for statistically valid conclusions about simulated or observed rare events associated with blackouts. For example, 11 occurrences are needed to estimate the probability of a rare event within a factor of 2 with 95% confidence.
Keywords :
power system reliability; statistical analysis; power system reliability; probability estimation; rare blackout event; statistical analysis; Power system reliability; Power system simulation; Probability; Statistics; Power system reliability; simulation; statistics;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2242700
