Don quixote reborn? — Managing offshore wind turbine projects

Offshore wind turbine power plants are expected to grow by 45% during the period 2009-2015. These large scale infrastructure energy projects are characterised by a number of risks. These projects are high-profile but at the same time, they suffer from time delay and cost overrun. They may trigger mechanisms such as scope creep and strategic political considerations similar to those found in other infrastructure investments, such as railroads, motorways, tunnels etc. This paper explores the possibilities of using “Reference Class Forecasting” (RCF) as a means to create a more precise and instrumental governance of these projects. RCF improves budgeting by identifying a relevant sample of previous similar projects, based on which a statistical distribution of outcomes for the reference class projects is generated. This method is officially endorsed by the American Planning Association. Using publicly available data, the paper analyses whether differences in geotechnical conditions, technological differences in turbines, towers, foundations, cables, installation methods and more variability of previous offshore wind turbine power plant projects justify classification into two reference classes. It is claimed that RCF and a life cycle scope are needed to improve future investments in offshore wind energy.