A study on the success potential of multiple mobile payment technologies

Payment systems all over the world have grown into a complicated web of solutions. This is more challenging in the case of mobile based payment systems. Mobile based payment systems are many and consist of different technologies providing different services. The diffusion of these various technologies in a market is uncertain. Diffusion theorists, for example Rogers, and Davis suggest how innovation is accepted in markets. In the case of electronic payment systems, the tale of Mondex vs Octopus throws interesting insights on diffusion. Our paper attempts to understand the success potential of various mobile payment technologies. We illustrate what we describe as technology breadth in mobile payment systems using data from payment systems all over the world (n=62). Our data shows an unexpected superiority of SMS technology, over other technologies like NFC, WAP and others. We also used a Delphi based survey (n=5) with experts to address the possibility that SMS will gain superiority in market diffusion. The economic conditions of a country, particularly in developing countries, the services availed and characteristics of the user (for example number of un-banked users in large populated countries) may put SMS in the forefront. This may be true more for micro payments using the mobile.