Power system reinforcement planning considering wind power and load forecast uncertainty using the well-being analysis framework

This paper illustrates the utilization of quantitative reliability assessment in the evaluation of transmission planning alternatives in a wind integrated electric power system. The concept of load forecast uncertainty is introduced and incorporated in the studies. Static security assessment is performed using the well-being analysis framework which incorporates a conventional deterministic criterion, such as the N-1 approach, in a probabilistic framework to create the system risk indices. A modified version of the IEEE-Reliability Test System (IEEE-MRTS) is used as the study system in this paper. Reliability cost/reliability worth studies are conducted on the proposed expansion alternatives. These studies show that optimum reinforcement options can change by recognizing load forecast uncertainty and the security costs associated with encountering a marginal system operating state.