Title :
A study of short term forecasting of the railway freight volume in China using ARIMA and Holt-Winters models
Author :
Guo, Yu-hua ; Shi, Xiu-peng ; Zhang, Xiao-dong
Author_Institution :
Transp. Bur., Minist. of Railways of P.R. China, Beijing, China
Abstract :
This paper, bases on the trend and seasonal fluctuation of China´s monthly railway freight, uses ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model to forecast. After comparison of forecasting results, a final freight result from January to December of 2010 is generated. After verification, the predict results of ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model, with errors lower than 4%, are preferable to be used of railway freight forecast.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; freight handling; railways; ARIMA model; China; Holt-Winters model; railway freight volume; short term forecasting; Analytical models; Biological system modeling; Correlation; Data models; Predictive models; Rail transportation; Time series analysis; ARIMA; Holt-Winters; railway freight; short-term forecast;
Conference_Titel :
Supply Chain Management and Information Systems (SCMIS), 2010 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hong Kong
Print_ISBN :
978-962-367-696-0
