DocumentCode
538251
Title
A study of short term forecasting of the railway freight volume in China using ARIMA and Holt-Winters models
Author
Guo, Yu-hua ; Shi, Xiu-peng ; Zhang, Xiao-dong
Author_Institution
Transp. Bur., Minist. of Railways of P.R. China, Beijing, China
fYear
2010
fDate
6-9 Oct. 2010
Firstpage
1
Lastpage
6
Abstract
This paper, bases on the trend and seasonal fluctuation of China´s monthly railway freight, uses ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model to forecast. After comparison of forecasting results, a final freight result from January to December of 2010 is generated. After verification, the predict results of ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model, with errors lower than 4%, are preferable to be used of railway freight forecast.
Keywords
autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; freight handling; railways; ARIMA model; China; Holt-Winters model; railway freight volume; short term forecasting; Analytical models; Biological system modeling; Correlation; Data models; Predictive models; Rail transportation; Time series analysis; ARIMA; Holt-Winters; railway freight; short-term forecast;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Supply Chain Management and Information Systems (SCMIS), 2010 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location
Hong Kong
Print_ISBN
978-962-367-696-0
Type
conf
Filename
5681738
Link To Document