Flight connections and their impacts on delay propagation

The authors present a simple analytic model that explicitly separates the controllable factors that influence delays and propagation of delays in the National Airspace System (NAS) from those factors that are random variables in a given scenario. In this paper, the controllable type of factor is called "fixed" and the random type of factor is called "variable." Simple relationship exists among the fixed and variable factors that characterize NAS delay propagation. We show how the model can be applied to better understand delay propagation from specific NAS airports, especially the effects of flight schedule parameters on measured delay. Recorded data from actual NAS operations are used to derive estimates on key model parameters and to show how delay characteristics vary among different airports.