Towards an operational concept for integrated adaptive and predictive ATM

The EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre has developed a new strategy that balances adaptive and predictive elements of Air Traffic Management (ATM). As a next step, it would be useful to elaborate a concept of operation, which would integrate the two opposite positions. It is the objective of this position paper to draft a high-level proposal of the operational concept, its vision, goal and scope, and to break it down into conceptual elements. Issues like the context into which the concept is embedded, baseline assumptions of the future ATM system, enablers that are necessary, benefits that can be achieved, as well as transition constraints are also treated for this new operational concept. The paper defines the vision of the Operational Concept for Integrated Adaptive-Predictive ATM covering all flight phases including pre-light, in which a highly predictive, reactive and automated system further complements adaptive ATM. The scope is set to 2020-2025. It is important to integrate flow- with separation-, cooperation- and collaboration procedures. Special attention is given to seamless operations on the boundary between adaptive and predictive concept elements, and the role of the human vis-a-vis automation. After setting the scene, the concept is outlined in more detail. The paper treats its rationale regarding automation and discusses the reason for improving the predictive side of the system, by pushing predictive automation algorithms and tools into all pre-flight and in-flight phases. The concept is broken down into its five big concept elements that are: last minute central flow management; automatic airport flow; user-preferred flow synchronisation; full-automatic traffic management; and self-separation. The discussion is continued on the required enablers of the concept: the predictive chain, automation tools, 4-d