Predicting the economic loss of typhoon by case base reasoning and fuzzy theory

This study presents the prediction of economic loss of typhoon by two methods, case base reasoning (CBR) and fuzzy theory (FT). The typhoon records in Taiwan before 2000 were used as the database for reference, and the records after the year 2000 were predicted using CBR and FT derived from the database. Three scenarios were calculated, the first is CBR with four parameters, maximum wind speed, minimum atmospheric pressure, maximum wind speed in typhoon center and lowest atmospheric pressure near typhoon center. The second scenario includes the four parameters with rainfall and calculated by CBR. The third scenario uses the fuzzy calculation with four parameters. The successful rate of prediction for the three methods was 12.5%, 37.5%, and 57%. The results reveal that the fuzzy calculation can significantly increase the prediction rate than the traditional CBR method.