Smart transition management to smarten energy systems in a deeply uncertain world

Enormous future investments are needed to replace old energy systems/technologies, and prepare them for future needs. Moreover, smarter technologies/systems are needed. And in this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, smarter policymaking in the energy field is certainly needed too. After all, current energy policymaking still mainly ignores (dynamic) complexity and (deep) uncertainty. This paper illustrates two model-based approaches for supporting policymaking for complex and uncertain issues as well as their combination. First, Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis allows exploring and analyzing millions of plausible (uncertain) dynamic system behaviors and testing the robustness of policies. This approach is illustrated by means of a System Dynamics simulation model related to energy grid investments. Second, Experiential Model-Based Gaming allows policymakers to experience dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty, and helps them feel the need to embrace both in policymaking. Before having experienced different plausible futures, almost all high-level managers and highly-educated students that played such experiential games applied inappropriate strategies in most plausible futures played, and hence failed in the face of uncertainty. Failing repeatedly actually prepared them for thinking outside their old/reactive/predictive modes in subsequent bounce-casting sessions. Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis and Experiential Model-Based Gaming may also be mutually beneficial: most subjects only acknowledge the need to take uncertainty and dynamic complexity seriously into account after having participated in experience-oriented gaming sessions.