Improvement and application of grey prediction model for road traffic accident

Author

Dai Lei-lei ; Gu Jin-gang ; Yu Chun-jun

Author_Institution

Traffic Manage. Res. Inst., Minist. of Public Security, Wuxi, China

Volume

3

fYear

2011

fDate

26-28 July 2011

Firstpage

2040

Lastpage

2043

Abstract

In view of the disadvantages of GM(1, 1) model, which has low precision for prediction of violent non-stationary data series. Based on availability and characteristics of accident data, the GM(1, 1) improved model and Verhulst improved model are put forward by using metabolism methods. Application of traffic accident data from 1996~2009 of Heilongjiang Province shows that the Verhulst improved model is more precise than GM(1, 1) improved model for violent changing data series. The average precision of Verhulst improved model can reach 85%, which can basically meet the demand for road traffic safety management.

Keywords

accidents; grey systems; road safety; road traffic; GM(1,1) model; Heilongjiang province; Verhulst improved model; grey prediction model; metabolism method; nonstationary data series; road traffic accident; road traffic safety management; Accidents; Accuracy; Adaptation models; Data models; Predictive models; Roads; Verhulst model; grey prediction model; metabolism method; road traffic accident;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2011 Eighth International Conference on

Conference_Location

Shanghai

Print_ISBN

978-1-61284-180-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/FSKD.2011.6019910

Filename

6019910