Probabilistic calculus in power system analysis and design

The increasing uncertainties grid operator have to face in their every-day work lead to the necessity for fast and accurate information about the probability of certain operational states of their network. Algorithms traditionally used in grid operation and planning are only able to determine a discrete operational state of the power grid. An inclusion of probabilistic data is usually done by analysis of selected discrete states with traditional power flow calculation techniques, followed by an interpolation of the results. In this paper the authors want to highlight the principle features of a novel class of probabilistic calculation algorithms, presently being researched and evaluated.