Combining scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model for analyzing the development of the light-emitting diode Panel Industry

According to an industry report, light-emitting diode (LED) technology will replace cold cathode fluorescent lamp (CCFL) technology in the near future. Therefore, for liquid crystal display (LCD) panel-manufacturing companies to allocate their resources efficiently, it is very important that they understand the demand of these two technologies. This study combined scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and innovation diffusion to analyze the situation over the next five years. Scenario analysis was applied twice. The result of the first one showed that the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV market will grow slowly in the next 5 years, with the LED TV becoming the leader in the market, and also that the panel is the most critical factor in the development of the LCD TV. Therefore, the second analysis was run to analyze in more detail the competitive situation between LED and CCFL panels. The most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely scenarios of the LED panel market in the next five years were described. The global sales of CCFL and LED panels were also predicted for the three scenarios above using the innovation diffusion model. According to the forecasting results, the LED panel will replace the CCFL panel as the mainstream product in the second quarter of 2012, in the first quarter of 2013, and in the third quarter of 2012 under the optimistic, pessimistic, and likely scenarios, respectively.