An Error Modified Grey Theory for Electricity Demand Forecasting

Electricity demand forecasting is very important for electricity systems to plan. The aim of this work is to develop a modified grey prediction method for electricity demand forecasting. In this method, the error in grey theory model was used to correct the forecasting results. Our approach helps to improve the forecasting accuracy. In order to study the performance of modified grey theory, general model and grey theory modified with data preprocessing techniques and simulation function were studied too. The results show that the general grey model, GM (1, 1) is inadequate to forecast yearly electricity demand. Furthermore, the data preprocessing technique and simulation function can not efficiently improve forecasting performance. Otherwise, error modified grey theory can obviously decrease the forecasting error.