A research on estimating the birth population with time varying restriction strategy

According to the feature that the density of female population affects the birth rate most, we studied the birth population with time-varying restriction strategy while taking the density of female population as the research object. The fitting test was done with the help of the theory of Lyapunov and the goodness of related curves. The density model of the Normal Distribution has been established while the childbearing age was taken as random variables. By introducing the concept of constraint effect and correlation index of curve-fitting, combining with the birth policy of China, the model has been established to estimate the birth number with time-varying restriction strategy. It has been quantified to investigate the restrictive function of birth policy on birth rate, which will help to provide the theoretical basis for making more reasonable birth policies.