Impact of wind forecasting and probabilistic line rating on reserve requirement

Using wind power forecasts to optimize scheduling of reserves is an active area of research. However, the rating of transmission lines often places a limit on how much wind power can be used and hence reserve scheduling needs to be higher to account for this. Dynamic line ratings have been used to show that rated capacity of a transmission line is quite conservative compared the actual maximum capacity of a transmission line at any given time. This paper proposes a method to probabilistically estimate the reserves considering wind forecast uncertainty as well as dynamic line ratings. It is seen that using deterministic line ratings often require wind power production to be curtailed or `capped´ while increasing the minimum reserves is required to ensure lines are not overloaded. However, when dynamic line ratings are considered, wind energy does not need to be capped and reserves can be lowered, while still leading to a lower probability of line overload.