A large simulation experiment to test influenza pandemic behavior

Author

Beeler, M.F. ; Aleman, D.M. ; Carter, M.W.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Mech. & Ind. Eng., Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

fYear

2012

fDate

9-12 Dec. 2012

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

7

Abstract

The effectiveness of mass vaccination and voluntary self-quarantine to mitigate pandemic influenza is tested in a large agent-based simulation. The characteristics of the pandemic - infectiousness, days contagious, and risk of death - are varied systematically along with the mitigation efforts in a five-factor designed experiment. A total of 243 distinct pandemic scenarios are tested. A range of two-way and three-way interaction effects are found that show significant non-linearities and contingencies in pandemic behavior and intervention effectiveness.

Keywords

diseases; medical computing; multi-agent systems; agent-based simulations; days contagious characteristic; infectiousness characteristic; influenza pandemic behavior testing; intervention effectiveness; large simulation experiment; mass vaccination effectiveness; pandemic influenza mitigation; risk-of-death characteristic; three-way interaction effects; two-way interaction effects; voluntary self-quarantine effectiveness; Computational modeling; Data models; Educational institutions; Sociology; Statistics; Strain; Testing;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Simulation Conference (WSC), Proceedings of the 2012 Winter

Conference_Location

Berlin

ISSN

0891-7736

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-4779-2

Electronic_ISBN

0891-7736

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/WSC.2012.6465285

Filename

6465285