Methodology for collision risk assessment of flow corridor concept

This paper presents a methodology for the safety analysis of the flow corridor concept. The flow corridor is one of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concepts to reduce congestion and increase traffic throughput under en-route airspace. The collision risk analysis is a hybrid approach that combines Monte Carlo simulation with an analytical approach. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the frequency of occurrence of events that may lead to a collision. Dynamic event trees and fault trees are used to calculate collision probabilities given these events occur — namely, that two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision in the flow corridor. The focus of this paper is on the dynamic event trees and fault trees. A sensitivity analysis shows the relative impact of component failure probabilities on collision risk.