A method for the technical feasibility assessment of electrical vehicle penetration

In recent years, electric vehicles (EVs) have gained much attention as a potential enabling technology to support CO₂ emissions reduction targets. Furthermore, many of the cost and vehicle technology barriers that have prevented their adoption in the past are increasingly being addressed by vehicle manufacturers. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether EVs themselves will be technically feasible within the larger infrastructure systems with which they interact. Fundamentally, EVs interact with three interconnected `systems-of-systems´: the (physical) transportation system, the electric power grid, and their supporting information systems often called intelligent transportation systems (ITS). These systems affect the EV operation in potentially constraining ways that can negatively impact the EV user´s final transportation experience. This paper seeks to understand and assess these interactions in such a way as to evaluate their ultimate technical feasibility in relation to their supporting infrastructure systems. A new assessment method based upon modeling tools for each infrastructure system is proposed. For the traffic system, a microscopic discrete-time traffic operations simulator is used to study the kinematic state of the EV fleet at all times. For the electric power system, power flow analysis is used to determine the electrical charging loads required by the EV traffic usage patterns. Finally, UML is used to model the intelligent transportation system functionality as compared to a template of functions deemed necessary to support EV integration. The final method of technical feasibility assessment is demonstrated on a hypothetical scenario which conceptualizes the EV adoption scenario by a taxi service operator.