Assessment of the SWAT model prediction uncertainty using the GLUE approach A case study of the Chiba catchment (Tunisia)

Hydrological models predictions are always affected with uncertainty that have to be addressed in order to make appropriate use of these models in water resources studies and management. In this paper the efficiency of the SWAT model for discharge prediction in partially gauged semi-arid catchment is evaluated and the model prediction uncertainty is assessed using the GLUE approach. Based on the results, SWAT can be used to predict the discharge in semi-arid catchment but its efficiency is marked with high variability due to the inter-annual variability of rainfall. The uncertainty analysis of the model prediction suggests that model parameters uncertainty alone cannot compensate for all uncertainty sources and that in order to provide more realistic uncertainty estimation all uncertainty sources have to be considered.