A note on prognosis of system based expert knowledge

This paper is a contribution to the prognostic of complex systems based on the expert knowledge. The aim is to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a resource (i.e. a component of the system) based on partial knowledge. In this paper the models describing the behavior of the resource are, and in order to be more realistic, stochastic. Hence, a probabilistic method based on Maximum Relative Entropy (MRE) approach is used. Based on partial knowledge, provided by expert, the MRE allows to update the probability distribution of the damage parameters. Finally, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, damage trajectory is constructed.