Integrating Random Shocks Into Multi-State Physics Models of Degradation Processes for Component Reliability Assessment

We extend a multi-state physics model (MSPM) framework for component reliability assessment by including semi-Markov and random shock processes. Two mutually exclusive types of random shocks are considered: extreme, and cumulative. Extreme shocks lead the component to immediate failure, whereas cumulative shocks simply affect the component degradation rates. General dependences between the degradation and the two types of random shocks are considered. A Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is implemented to compute component state probabilities. An illustrative example is presented, and a sensitivity analysis is conducted on the model parameters. The results show that our extended model is able to characterize the influences of different types of random shocks onto the component state probabilities and the reliability estimates.