Model screening metrics for thermal models of substation distribution transformers

Dynamic loading of transformers is the term used when the loading capacity is calculated using an appropriate thermal model while taking into account the load magnitude, load shape, thermal limits and external cooling conditions. For transformer dynamic loading, the aim is to estimate the transformer´s maximum dynamic loading capacity without violating the hottest-spot temperature (HST) and top-oil temperature (TOT) thermal limits. These two temperatures are proxy measures of insulation temperature, which can be used to estimate the loss of service life. The accuracy of the TOT and HST predictions is dependent on many things, central to which is the accuracy of the thermal model. This paper introduces metrics that can be used to differentiate between reliable and unreliable transformer thermal models. The two models discussed in this paper for HST and TOT are the non-linear IEEE model and the model developed by the authors using linear regression methods.